Sunday, March 19, 2017

USD: Market expected more hawkish FED

US macro data is still very positive. Inflation is undoubtedly gaining significant momentum. 
The three rate hike signaled by the FED disappointed the markets and resulted in some dollar selloff. 

Central Bank and rates
The FED raised rates as expected and signaled two more hikes this year. To my surprise this dissapointed the market and the USD was sold off.  

The 2y rates broke out from the 2 months range.

Economic Activity
GDP data is show some relative weakness in the last readings.

Industrial production trend is still up.

Manufacturing indices are at the top of the range.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:

Empire State Manufacturing Index:

Inflation trend is strongly up.
Labor Market
The US is close to full unemployment.

 Retail sales are at the highest level since years as the CB Consumer Confidence 

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