Sunday, October 30, 2016

Market is to test FBI probe sparked moves

Economic Data will be very muted. In the US Personal Spending m/m and Chikagi PMI will be released, non of them are of high importance. Though the PMI is a good indication of the uncertainties surrounding the recovery:

In Europe the preliminary GDP and the Flash CPI estimate will be released. It is to see whether better than expected data will continue coming. EUR CPI looks as if the inflation is ticking up:

EUR/USD pushed through the 1.0950 resistance the follow through will be critical. We should see some consolidation before considering any trade.

GBP/USD move was much less muted on Friday evening that suggest weakness. I think it is difficult to trade the 1.2250 level. It should approach other levels to consider any entry.

AUD/USD was one of the weakest on Friday. I will lokk for short entry targeting 0.7500.

NZD/USD looks much stronger. 

AUD/NZD short also could be an interesting trade if the 1.059 breaks.

USD/JPY is still a buy.

USD/CAD is too noisy for me.

SP500 looks more and more bearish, though 2210 is a strong resistance.
DAX looks more attractive from the long side,though 10800 a very strong resistance.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Dollar sideways, equities are widening the range

The good US preliminarily GDP (+2.9% q/q annualized vs +2.6% expected) did little with the USD.

EUR is within yesterday's range. There are two forces drive EUR rates:
- Policy divergence trades fueled by the increase in December FED rate expectations against the common currency.
- Better than expected Eurozone data helped the EUR. Coming releases will be important in this respect.
Look for short entry around 1.0950 or 1.0965 and false breakout, strong rejection bar at 1.0850.

There is not potential fundamental catalyst in sight that could significantly move GBP. Brexit talk ignited moves were faded quickly recently. Look for short at 1.2250 and long at 1.2080.

Aussie gave back the better than expected CPI gains and more. Its is in the middle of the 0.7500-0.7700 daily range. Look for opportunities at these levels.

Kiwi is somewhat similar to AUD on daily basis but looks technically stronger on the hourly chart. AUD/NZD cross seemingly rejecting the 5 months old resistance at 0.7700. Iron ore prices rose for the seventh day by 10%. Aluminum prices have also rallied strongly to five-year highs. The commodity complex should support the AUD, so I would not short at 1.0770. I would rather look for the false break of the 1.059 0 resistance.

USD/JPY exhibits some consolidation. I look for long at 104.85.

USD/CAD breakout loosing steam. Look for long entry at the retest of 1.3250.

SP500: long at 2124/2110 short at 2150/2170.