Sunday, September 23, 2018

Week Ahead 39

Equities
SP500 made new high whereas NQ did not follow suit and finished the week with a bearish daily candle.

DAX had a nice rally but it is facing various resistance levels.

Bonds
The US 10y yield broke the 3.00% psychological level and the curve steepened a bit.


European spreads widened. The question is how long the Euro can ignore it.



Commodities
Both WTI and Brent is struggling with resistance levels. Should the Brent break the 80 we could see some more upside there. 

Copper bounced back sharply from key level and even made a higher high on the daily chart. Cancelling the Chinese delegation trip to US might push back the momentum.

Gold
Gold is still trading in the range around 1200. Given the rise in the US yields it looks that downside breakdown is more likely.

FX
DX bounced back from key support on Friday. We should see how the 94.00 resistance will hold

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Week Ahead 38

Equities
Dip in US equities seems to be short lived as both SP500 and NQ was up in the week forming a higher swing low. We have to see new highs before declaring that the correction is over. 



European equities bounced back just before touching the March lows and now are in a supply zone that could be a bull flag or consolidation before reversal.

Emerging markets had some relief in the second half of the week, but the picture is still very bearish.

Bonds
US yields are up. The 2y-10y spread remained within the 0.20-0.25% range.

The Geman-US 2y spread widened which is not a good omen for the Euro.

Commodities
WTI is still trading within the 64-75 range, whereas Brent bounced back from the 80.00 resistance. Due to the Iran sanction the Brent-WTI spread is still going up.

Copper is at 2.60 very important support level that is the May 2017 low.

Gold
Gold climbed to 1212 but quickly retraced back to 1192.50 with a sharp move on Friday.

FX
DX bounced off sharply from the 94.00 support on Friday.