Friday, March 30, 2018

Week Ahead 14

SP500 found support at the 200DMA. The February low at 2530 is still a support should it break the 200DMA. 

For NQ the 200DMA is around 6300, whereas the February low is at 6200.

DAX made a lower low around 11750 but bounced back to the previous resistance at 12100.

The US 2Y yield peaked at 2.35% and retreated to the 2.27% level. The 10Y is in a bit of downtrend resulting in flattening the curve further.

The 2Y yield spreads seem to do some bottoming exercise as monetary divergences do not look widening further.

Commodity index is range-bound. 

Agriculturals were hit hard by trade war fears, potential Chinese retaliation. 

Sugar is around the 2015 lows due to reports about oversupply. Sugar is interesting as there is an option to switch to ethanol production, so the price is in a sensitive territory.

Oil is forming a potential double top.

Gold is in a 70 point range this year. The highs it makes are a bit lower and lower.

It is interesting to see that both platinum and palladium are breaking out of a similar range to the downside. Gold could easily follow suit though it is a different animal.

DX is at the top of this year's trading range. There are various technical obstacles to get back to the multiyear range it broke from early January.

EUR is struggling in the 400 pip range.

Pound reached the pre-Brexit territory and forming a potential double top with a slightly lower high.

On 4H it formed a nice H&S.

Aussie is a longer term support but every bounce back is sold off sharply.

Kiwi is making lower highs as well.

JPY showed some sign of life this week, but it must break 107.50-108.00 resistance range before we could think of any meaningful upside.

CAD broke the 1.3000 but retreated very quickly.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Syncing with the markets

This is a great post by Brett Steenbarger on how trading time frequency can impact our performance. The key point is that the trading frequency or the chart we trade must be in sync with our speed of decision making