Week Ahead 34

Next week will be busy with news and important data releases. FOMC meeting minutes, resumption of US China trade talks, Jackson Hole just to mention a few. 

USD Index finished the week with a strong bearish bar closing at a S/T resistance at 96.00. Should that level fail MAs offer support otherwise the market could retest the strong support around 95.20.

Equities
SP500 closed the gap on Friday finishing the week on a bullish note. Moving averages offer now support and the early Augusts high is the resistance before the all time high. 

Nasdaq Index respected the longer term trendline and bounced back from 7300. The lower highs on short timeframe are a bit of concern now.

DAX bounced back from strong support and needs much more to change the bearish picture.

Bonds
Declining US yields and flattening yield curve might not be a good sing for equities. The 2y could not bounce back as the US indices did on Friday.

Commodities

US Oil broke down from the 67-00-70.50 channel. The 200d SMA and the early June lows offer a strong support now.

Copper is off the L/T support at 2.50. Positive trade talks news could lift it even further.

Gold
Gold is fully driven by USD rather the prevailing risk on/off mood. It broke the 1200 level on Monday and reversed sharply on Thursday. 

FX
EUR broke the 14.30 S/T resistance but needs follow through. GBP is at the 1.2750 S/T resistance. Both AUD and NZD had a nice follow through after breaking S/T resistance. CAD moved sharply after the strong CPI reading and now is at a S/T support. CNH also broke support on the resumption of trade talks. 

USD consolidates

US-China trade talks should be behind.

Week Ahead 27

Equities
Trade war worries put some pressure on equities especially in Europe. SP500 could make a higher high but still well off from  its highest level. Now it is facing with various resistances such as MAs and levels. 

NQ week before last could set a record level but now retreated bellow the resistance it had broken. The 50DMA did't seem to be a strong support in the past so buying the dip looks better at around 6600 DMA value.

DAX formed a double top and broke the support at 12550 and it is again bellow now the 200 DMA. The strong support is the 11735 April low.

Bonds 
The US 2Y yield is forming a double top whereas the 10Y reversed way bellow the 3.13% high resulting in the further flattening the curve that is not a good sign for equities.

The 10Y-2Y spreads are consolidating except for the AUD and NZD that are near or bellow lows.

Commodities

The Agri complex looks to be the main victim of trade war worries as they make new lows led by fall in grain prices. 

Base metals might retest the 2017 July levels as they broke the December support level.

Copper is at at critical level. Should that break we might see the 2017 levels again that would be a bad sign for equities.

Oil is still in a strong uptrend making new high.

Gold
Gold is in a strong downtrend nearing the December low strong resistance.

FX

DX is consolidating after braking the November high level.

Some major pairs are at or near strong support level.

USD/JPY still within a range and still bullish despite the risk-off mood that prevails otherwise.

USD/CAD made new high but reversed sharply after BOC's Poloz speech.

The big trade was the Yuan weakening that is going to face some resistance soon.