Sunday, August 19, 2018

Week Ahead 34

Next week will be busy with news and important data releases. FOMC meeting minutes, resumption of US China trade talks, Jackson Hole just to mention a few. 

USD Index finished the week with a strong bearish bar closing at a S/T resistance at 96.00. Should that level fail MAs offer support otherwise the market could retest the strong support around 95.20.

SP500 closed the gap on Friday finishing the week on a bullish note. Moving averages offer now support and the early Augusts high is the resistance before the all time high. 

Nasdaq Index respected the longer term trendline and bounced back from 7300. The lower highs on short timeframe are a bit of concern now.

DAX bounced back from strong support and needs much more to change the bearish picture.

Declining US yields and flattening yield curve might not be a good sing for equities. The 2y could not bounce back as the US indices did on Friday.

US Oil broke down from the 67-00-70.50 channel. The 200d SMA and the early June lows offer a strong support now.

Copper is off the L/T support at 2.50. Positive trade talks news could lift it even further.

Gold is fully driven by USD rather the prevailing risk on/off mood. It broke the 1200 level on Monday and reversed sharply on Thursday. 

EUR broke the 14.30 S/T resistance but needs follow through. GBP is at the 1.2750 S/T resistance. Both AUD and NZD had a nice follow through after breaking S/T resistance. CAD moved sharply after the strong CPI reading and now is at a S/T support. CNH also broke support on the resumption of trade talks. 

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