Saturday, August 11, 2018

Week Ahead 33

US Equities didn't move too much last week as the TRY collapse wiped out all the gain on Friday. Though, they were trading in a very tight range from Tuesday that was a sign of weakness. I would want to see at least another leg of this correction before considering buying the dip.

Things look much worse in Europe as DAX dropped more than 2% on Friday. It broke key resistances an completed a H&S pattern. The H&S target coincides with the previous low of 12100. It looks definitely bearish. I would look to sell more at the bounce back if any or it goes further down. The old rule applies: buy US Equities in rallies and sell DAX in the risk off mood. 

It is important to point out how the US2y behaved this moth. We saw dips before the Friday dive so it might be a decent flow to bonds that is not so good for equities.

Trade War victims the agri complex looks to see new lows. It is good for shorts and bad for US farmers who shouldn't blame the traders.

Oil is back to the 67.00-70.50 channel after the false breakdown on Wednesday.

Gold is still in a tight channel bouncing back from the major long term support level multiple times. It looks sellers time to time pop up as the USD interests are appealing. It is important to point out that Friday was clearly risk off day and the 2y fell sharply and gold could not break out from this range. 

It seems that nothing can stop the dollar run.

JPY and CHF can hold despite the run. It looks that any USD correction or more risk off mood could bring the JPY to the 109 area or even further down.

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