Wednesday, March 22, 2017

The two main reasons behind the dollar selloff

There are two areas where the market is questioning the consensus that prevailed since the election.

1. Market is becoming less optimistic whether Trump will be able keep its promises.
The federal budget proposal doesn't seem to be as expansionary as the market have thought. The border tax is still a big question-mark, seemingly there isn't a consensus even among the Republicans regarding this proposal.

2. Policy divergence is less obvious (Divergence Theme Questioned)
The inflation is increasing elsewhere as well. The economic picture is improving in the developed world.

These were the two main themes that underpinned the USD Trump rally. 

Equities also started a correction as market is becoming less optimistic about Trump.

It seems that we shouldn't wait even for 100 days to get closer to the reality....

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