I took a long break in both trading and blogging, so it is time now to start it again slowly ...
Perhaps the best is to start with is taking a look at some macro charts that could tel something about the big picture.
CPI figures are important for me in two ways: a) central bank policies are closely linked to this data b) development in CPI differentials are good FX indicators.
It looks as if the increasing trend started somewhere last summer is showing some reversal pattern. This is the strongest in the US that could very well underpin the USD weakness started early this year. Japan is doing relatively well, but the basis is very low indeed.
We can't pick some obvious global trend on the GDP front. The most striking is the jump in CAD data. What is good that all the readings are above 1% and the gap is narrowing that could also fuel the USD weakness.
I follow closely the US and EU data.
The jump in the EU data could support the EUR rally we saw recently.
In the US the data started to go sideways, whereas in the EU we see a strong uptick narrowing the gap.
Data source: I download the data from www.forexfactory.com to Excel where I process it further