Monday, August 7, 2017
USD could start bottoming
USD Index is approaching an important weakly level that is a major resistance.
Some Macro Charts
I took a long break in both trading and blogging, so it is time now to start it again slowly ...
Perhaps the best is to start with is taking a look at some macro charts that could tel something about the big picture.
CPI
CPI figures are important for me in two ways: a) central bank policies are closely linked to this data b) development in CPI differentials are good FX indicators.
It looks as if the increasing trend started somewhere last summer is showing some reversal pattern. This is the strongest in the US that could very well underpin the USD weakness started early this year. Japan is doing relatively well, but the basis is very low indeed.
GDP
We can't pick some obvious global trend on the GDP front. The most striking is the jump in CAD data. What is good that all the readings are above 1% and the gap is narrowing that could also fuel the USD weakness.
Industrial Production
I follow closely the US and EU data.
The jump in the EU data could support the EUR rally we saw recently.
Retail Sales
In the US the data started to go sideways, whereas in the EU we see a strong uptick narrowing the gap.
Data source: I download the data from www.forexfactory.com to Excel where I process it further
Perhaps the best is to start with is taking a look at some macro charts that could tel something about the big picture.
CPI
CPI figures are important for me in two ways: a) central bank policies are closely linked to this data b) development in CPI differentials are good FX indicators.
It looks as if the increasing trend started somewhere last summer is showing some reversal pattern. This is the strongest in the US that could very well underpin the USD weakness started early this year. Japan is doing relatively well, but the basis is very low indeed.
GDP
We can't pick some obvious global trend on the GDP front. The most striking is the jump in CAD data. What is good that all the readings are above 1% and the gap is narrowing that could also fuel the USD weakness.
Industrial Production
I follow closely the US and EU data.
The jump in the EU data could support the EUR rally we saw recently.
Retail Sales
In the US the data started to go sideways, whereas in the EU we see a strong uptick narrowing the gap.
Data source: I download the data from www.forexfactory.com to Excel where I process it further
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
The Euro is making new highs as Dollar is loosing ground
Dollar declined against the Euro in the last eight days and the trend seems to continue this morning as well. The Euro was the biggest beneficiary of the USD weakness. It has broken the 1.1100 level in the Asian session. The next strong resistance is around 1.1500.
The Pound is range-bound between 1.2850 and 1.3000.
AUD retraced the 0.7450 level.
Kiwi is still struggling near the 0.6850 major resistance,
JPY is nearing the 112.00 major resistance,
CAD is also at a major resistance around 1.3600. The oil rally helped the loonie, but given the Dollar overall weakness and the oil rally in the last few days the technical picture doesn't seem to be very impressive for the bears.
SGD is also nearing major resistance.
It seems it is just too many resistances now that might suggest a potential USD correction.
The Pound is range-bound between 1.2850 and 1.3000.
AUD retraced the 0.7450 level.
Kiwi is still struggling near the 0.6850 major resistance,
JPY is nearing the 112.00 major resistance,
CAD is also at a major resistance around 1.3600. The oil rally helped the loonie, but given the Dollar overall weakness and the oil rally in the last few days the technical picture doesn't seem to be very impressive for the bears.
SGD is also nearing major resistance.
It seems it is just too many resistances now that might suggest a potential USD correction.
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